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Convergence between pattern and retracement can point to
excellent
trading opportunities. Keep in mind
that retracements work poorly in a vacuum. Always
examine highs, lows and
moving
averages to confirm the importance of
a specific level. |
Discord between retracement and
the underlying pattern generates noise instead of profit. Move
on to a new chart when nothing lines up correctly. This
divergence generates most of the whipsaw in a price chart.
Alternatively, strong phasing between Fibonacci and pattern
exposes highly predictive reversals at narrow price levels.
Let's look at five tricks to improve your Fibonacci skills. Add
these twists and turns to your toolbox and apply them to your
next
trade. I promise they'll serve you very well
in the years ahead.
First Rise/First Failure
First Rise/First Failure marks
the first 100% retracement of a trend within your time frame of
interest. It provides an early reversal warning after a new high
or low. The 100% retracement violates the major price direction
and terminates the trend it corrects. From this level, the old
trend can reestablish itself if it breaks through the old 38%
level. More often, traders will use that level to enter low-risk
positions against the old trend.
Parabola Hunt
Parabolic movement tends to
occur between the 0%-to-38% and 62%-to-100% Fibonacci levels in
all trends. This tendency offers a great tool for finding the
big moves when looking for trades. Watch for congestion to form
at the 38% or 62% level. Then use a simple breakout or breakdown
strategy when price moves past it. The next thrust can be
dramatic, with price moving like a magnet back to an old high or
low. Of course, the strategy only works when you can find these
levels in advance.
Continuation Gap Extensions
You can often target the exact
price a rally or selloff will end at by using the continuation
gap as a Fibonacci extension tool. Identify the gap by its
location at the dead center of a vertical price wave. Then start
a Fib grid at the beginning of the trend and extend it so the
gap sits under the 50% retracement level. The grid extension
points to the terminating price for the rally or selloff.
Overnight Grids
Find an active
stock and start a grid from the high (or low)
of a session's last hour. Stretch the grid to the opposite end
of the next morning's first hour low (or high). This defines a
specific price wave traders can use to uncover intraday
reversals, breakouts and breakdowns. The overnight grid also
offers a way to trade morning gaps. The gap will often stretch
across a key retracement level and target low-risk entry on a
pullback.
Second High/Low
Many traders can't figure out
where to start a Fib grid. Here's a trick to help you place it
where it'll do the most good. The absolute high or low in a
price wave isn't the best starting point for a grid most of the
time. Instead, look for a small double bottom or double top
within the congestion where the trend began. Swing one end of
the grid over this second high (or low), instead of the first.
This will capture a specific Elliott Wave that conforms to the
trend you're trying to trade.