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Significant declines evolve into long bottoms characterized by
failed rallies and retesting of prior lows. As new accumulation
slowly shakes out the last crowd of losers, a stock's character
changes. Prices push toward the top of key resistance.
Short-term relative strength improves and the chart exhibits a
series of bullish price bars with closing ticks near their
highs. Finally the issue begins a steady march through the wall
marked with past failures.
Stocks
must overcome gravity to enter new uptrends.
Value players build bases but can't supply the
critical force needed to fuel rallies. Fortunately,
the momentum crowd arrives just in time to fill this
chore. As a stock slowly rises above resistance,
greed rings a loud bell and these growth players
jump in all at the same time.
The appearance of a sharp breakout gap
has tremendous buy power. But the
skilled trader should remain cautious
when the move lacks heavy volume. Bursts
of enthusiastic buying must draw wide
attention that ignites further price
expansion. When strong volume fails to
appear, the gap may fill quickly and
trap the emotional longs. Non-gapping,
high volume surges provide a comfortable
price floor similar to gaps. But support
can be less dependable, forcing a stock
to swing into a new range rather than
rise quickly.
Fortunately
this scenario sets up good pullback trades. The
uptrend terrain faces predictable obstacles
marked by Clear Air pockets and congestion from
prior downtrends. These barriers can force
frequent dips that mark good buying
opportunities. The trader must identify these
profitable zones in advance and be ready to act.
Gap breakouts are more likely to rise
toward higher prices immediately than
simple volume breakouts. Waiting for a
dip may be futile. Extreme crowd
enthusiasm ignites continued buying at
higher levels and market makers don't
need pullbacks to generate volume. If
entry is desired, use a trend-following
strategy and manage risk with absolute
price or percentage stop loss.
As trend
builds momentum, surges register on technical
indicators such as MACD and ADX. Volatility
absorbs each thrust and
parabolic rallies erupt. Dips will
cease during these runaway expansion moves as
price range expands bar to bar, often
culminating in a second (continuation) gap and a
final exhaustion spike.
After rapid price movement, markets need time to
absorb instability generated by that trend's
momentum. They pause to catch their breath as
both volume and price rate of change drop
sharply. During this consolidation period, new
price levels undergo continuous testing for
support
and
resistance. To the pattern reader,
this range phenomenon reveals itself through the
familiar shapes of Flags, Pennants and
Rectangles.
Relatively simple mechanics underlie the
formation of these continuation patterns. The
orderly return to a market's mean state sets the
foundation for a new thrust in the same
direction. In a series of sharp trend moves,
congestion tends to alternate between simple and
complex in both time and size.
Trade defensively when the prior
pattern was both short and simple. Go on the
offense after observing an extended battle in
the last range.
When examining continuation patterns,
traders must pay close attention
to proportionality. This visual element will
validate or nullify other predictive
observations. Constricted ranges should be
proportional in both time and size to the trends
that precede them. When they take on dimensions
larger than expected from visual examination,
odds increase that the observed range actually
relates to the next trend larger in scale than
the one being viewed. This can trigger
devastating trend relativity errors, in which
positions are executed based on patterns longer
or shorter than the time frame being traded.
All patterns must be evaluated within the
context of trend relativity. The existence of
any range depends upon the time frame being
analyzed. For example, a market may print a
strong bull move on the weekly chart, a bear on
the daily and a tight continuation pattern on
the 5-min bar, all at the same time. A range
drawn through one time frame does not signal
similar conditions in the other periods that
particular
market
trades through.