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Pattern Cycles offer a superb way for
the
short-term
trader to understand and
capitalize upon this repeating market
behavior. Look no further than R. N.
Elliott's work in the 1930s and you'll
find the Five Wave Decline. This
structure for price correction is as
powerful today as it was 60 years ago.
And as a parable for crowd behavior,
traders can use it without
understanding the broader Elliott Wave
Theory. |
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Your holding period guides the profit
side of the exit equation. Always seek
the reward target that matches your time
in the market. In other words, trade the
most profitable move from your entry to
the target within the time frame that
you're long or short the stock. This
lets you apply both a time- and a
price-based exit strategy to your
winners. |
A time-based
exit strategy requires little interpretation.
Focus on your
holding
period's time window rather than
the price action. Exit the trade immediately
when price hits the reward target at the right
time. Exit the trade before price hits the
reward target if the window starts to close. The
trick with time-based strategies is to look for
the best price available within the chosen
window.
Most traders should start with a price-based
exit strategy. For example, you enter a long
position, and it moves into a profit. It rallies
at a moderate pace and hits your reward target
within the holding period. You exit the trade
"blind" at the reward price. This means you take
the money and go, without considering the
current price action.
You've just
taken a nice profit in a perfect world, but how
do you protect yourself in the real one? Start
by focusing on trends within shorter-term time
frames. For example, when trading a daily chart,
manage profit and loss using a 60-minute chart
whenever possible. The shorter-term pattern will
tell you when to move the stop in order to
protect profits, or when to exit the
trade entirely.
Let's outline common stages for a long position
that eventually reaches the reward target:
- Price moves into a profit.
- Price reaches first resistance, and reverses.
- Price finds support and rallies through first
resistance.
This action/reaction continues until price
reaches the target. In this scenario,
trade
management requires a breakeven
stop as soon as price moves into a profit. This
stop should be moved up after the first
reversal, but stay below short-term support.
When price finally rallies above first
resistance, move the stop just below this new
level. Continue the process until the position
hits the reward target.
Profits are
nice, but many trades go haywire right away. The
exit strategy is very simple in this situation:
get out as soon as price breaks support on a
long trade, or resistance on a short sale. This
may sound simple, but there are two problems.
First, many of us lack the discipline to take
losses when they should be taken. Second, many
of us don't understand how to place stop losses
in the first place.
Take your loss when the market says you're
wrong. Every setup has a trigger that violates
the pattern you intend to trade. Identify this
price in advance, and place your stop just
behind it. Remember that this magic number
changes dynamically with each new bar, so you
need to adjust it often. But don't remove it
under any circumstances.
Do you get frustrated because your stops get hit
frequently on good trades? The fault lies in
your analysis and trade management, not in the
stops themselves. Many traders believe they can
improve their performance by placing stops where
they shouldn't go. Every stock will violate
support/resistance up to a point before
reversing. Your analysis must consider the
stock's underlying volatility, so the stop can
be placed outside this "market noise."
Finally, you
need a way to deal with unexpected bad news.
Start with a panic drill, and practice it over
and over again in your head. The exit strategy
is simple: If you can beat the rest of the crowd
out of the door, act immediately. The
after-hours market can save you a fortune if you
learn to use it wisely. If you can't escape
right away, watch price action closely and take
your best shot. The market can do anything it
wants once bad news hits, and you may need to
accept a large loss.
Sudden losses are a cost of doing business as a
trader. Full disclosure rules and external
events will impact your bottom line from time to
time. Reduce your risk by choosing
lower-volatility
stocks to carry over longer time
periods. Avoid holding anything through
earnings
reports
or terrorist threats. Remember, it's not
hard to rebuild profits after the unexpected
takes a bite out of your bottom line.