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A
Full Gap Down occurs when
the opening price is less than
yesterday's low.
The chart for Amazon below shows
both a full gap up on August 18
(green arrow) and a full gap
down the next day (red arrow).
A
Partial Gap Up occurs when
today's opening price is higher
than yesterday's close, but not
higher than yesterday's high.
The next chart for Earthlink
depicts the partial gap up on
June 1 (red arrow), and the full
gap up on June 2 (green arrow).
A
Partial Gap Down occurs when
the opening price is below
yesterday's close, but not below
yesterday's low.
The red arrow on the chart for
Offshore Logistics, below, shows
where the stock opened below the
previous close, but not below
the previous low.
In order to successfully trade
gapping stocks, one should use a
disciplined set of entry and
exit rules to signal trades and
minimize risk. Additionally, gap
trading strategies can be
applied to weekly, end-of-day,
or intraday gaps. It is
important for longer-term
investors to understand the
mechanics of gaps, as the
'short' signals can be used as
the exit signal to sell
holdings.
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The Gap Trading
Strategies
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Each of the four gap types has a
long and short trading signal,
defining the eight gap trading
strategies. The basic tenet of
gap trading is to allow one hour
after the market opens for the
stock price to establish its
range. A Modified Trading
Method, to be discussed later,
can be used with any of the
eight primary strategies to
trigger trades before the first
hour, although it involves more
risk. Once a position is
entered, you calculate and set
an 8% trailing stop to exit a
long position, and a 4% trailing
stop to exit a short position. A
trailing stop is simply an exit
threshold that follows the
rising price or falling price in
the case of short positions.
Long Example: You buy a stock at
$100. You set the exit at no
more than 8% below that, or $92.
If the price rises to $120, you
raise the stop to $110.375,
which is approximately 8% below
$120. The stop keeps rising as
long as the
stock
price rises. In
this manner, you follow the rise
in stock price with either a
real or mental stop that is
executed when the price trend
finally reverses.
Short Example: You short a stock
at $100. You set the
Buy-to-Cover at $104 so that a
trend reversal of 4% would force
you to exit the position. If the
price drops to $90, you
recalculate the stop at 4% above
that number, or $93 to
Buy-to-Cover.
The eight primary strategies are
as follows:
Full Gap Up: Long
If a stock's opening price is
greater than yesterday's high,
revisit the 1-minute chart after
10:30 am and set a long (buy)
stop two ticks above the high
achieved in the first hour of
trading. (Note: A 'tick' is
defined as the bid/ask spread,
usually 1/8 to 1/4 point,
depending on the stock.)
Full Gap Up: Short
If the stock gaps up, but there
is insufficient buying pressure
to sustain the rise, the stock
price will level or drop below
the opening gap price. Traders
can set similar entry signals
for short positions as follows:
If a stock's opening price is
greater than yesterday's high,
revisit the 1-minute chart after
10:30 am and set a short stop
equal to two ticks below the low
achieved in the first hour of
trading.
Full Gap Down: Long
Poor earnings, bad news,
organizational changes and
market influences can cause a
stock's price to drop
uncharacteristically. A full gap
down occurs when the price is
below not only the previous
day's close, but the low of the
day before as well. A stock
whose price opens in a full gap
down, then begins to climb
immediately, is known as a "Dead
Cat Bounce."
If a stock's opening price is
less than yesterday's low, set a
long stop equal to two ticks
more than yesterday's low.
Full Gap Down: Short
If a stock's opening price is
less than yesterday's low,
revisit the 1-minute chart after
10:30 am and set a short stop
equal to two ticks below the low
achieved in the first hour of
trading.
Partial Gaps
The difference between a Full
and Partial Gap is risk and
potential gain. In general, a
stock gapping completely above
the previous day's high has a
significant change in the
market's desire to own or sell
it. Demand is large enough to
force the market maker or floor
specialist to make a major price
change to accommodate the
unfilled orders. Full gapping
stocks generally trend farther
in one direction than stocks
which only partially gap.
However, a smaller demand may
just require the trading floor
to only move price above or
below the previous close in
order to trigger buying or
selling to fill on-hand orders.
There is a generally a greater
opportunity for gain over
several days in full gapping
stocks.
If there is not enough interest
in selling or buying a stock
after the initial orders are
filled, the stock will return to
its trading range quickly.
Entering a trade for a partially
gapping stock generally calls
for either greater attention or
closer trailing stops of 5-6%.
Partial Gap Up: Long
If a stock's opening price is
greater than yesterday's close,
but not greater than yesterday's
high, the condition is
considered a Partial Gap Up. The
process for a long entry is the
same for Full Gaps in that one
revisits the 1-minute chart
after 10:30 am and set a long
(buy) stop two ticks above the
high achieved in the first hour
of trading.
Partial Gap Up: Short
The short trade process for a
partial gap up is the same for
Full Gaps in that one revisits
the 1-minute chart after 10:30
am and sets a short stop two
ticks below the low achieved in
the first hour of trading.
Partial Gap Down: Long
If a stock's opening price is
less than yesterday's close,
revisit the 1 minute chart after
10:30 am and set a buy stop two
ticks above the high achieved in
the first hour of trading.
Partial Gap Down: Short
The short trade process for a
partial gap down is the same for
Full Gap Down in that one
revisits the 1-minute chart
after 10:30AM and sets a short
stop two ticks below the low
achieved in the first hour of
trading.
If a stock's opening price is
less than yesterday's close, set
a short stop equal to two ticks
less than the low achieved in
the first hour of trading today.
If the volume requirement is not
met, the safest way to play a
partial gap is to wait until the
price breaks the previous high
(on a long trade) or low (on a
short trade).
All eight of the Gap Trading
Strategies can also be applied
to end-of-day
trading. Using
StockCharts.com's Gap Scans,
end-of-day
traders
can review those stocks
with the best potential.
Increases in volume for stocks
gapping up or down is a strong
indication of continued movement
in the same direction of the
gap. A gapping stock that
crosses above resistance levels
provides reliable entry signals.
Similarly, a short position
would be signaled by a stock
whose gap down fails support
levels.
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What is the Modified
Trading Method?
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The Modified Trading Method
applies to all eight Full and
Partial Gap scenarios above. The
only difference is instead of
waiting until the price breaks
above the high (or below the low
for a short); you enter the
trade in the middle of the
rebound. The other requirement
for this method is that the
stock should be
trading on at
least twice the average volume
for the last five days. This
method is only recommended for
those individuals who are
proficient with the eight
strategies above, and have fast
trade execution systems. Since
heavy volume trading can
experience quick reversals,
mental stops are usually used
instead of hard stops.
Modified Trading Method: Long
If a stock's opening price is
greater than yesterday's high,
revisit the 1 minute chart after
10:30 am and set a long stop
equal to the average of the open
price and the high price
achieved in the first hour of
trading. This method recommends
that the projected daily volume
be double the 5-day average.
Modified Trading Method: Short
If a stock's opening price is
less than yesterday's low,
revisit the 1 minute chart after
10:30 am and set a long stop
equal to the average of the open
and low price achieved in the
first hour of trading. This
method recommends that the
projected daily volume be double
the 5-day average.
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Where do I find gapping
stocks? |
Members of StockCharts' Extra
service can run scans against
daily data that is updated on an
intraday basis. This is perfect
for finding gapping stocks.
Simply run the pre-defined gap
scans using the Intraday data
setting around 10AM Eastern.
StockCharts.com also publishes
lists of stocks that fully
gapped up or fully gapped down
each day based on end-of-day
data. This is an excellent
source of ideas for longer term
investors.
Although these are useful lists
of gapping stocks, it is
important to look at the longer
term charts of the
stock to know
where the support and resistance
may be, and play only those with
an average volume above 500,000
shares a day until the gap
trading technique is mastered.
The most profitable gap plays
are normally made on stocks
you've followed in the past and
are familiar with.
In simple terms, the Gap Trading
Strategies are a rigorously
defined trading system that uses
specific criteria to enter and
exit. Trailing stops are defined
to limit loss and protect
profits. The simplest method for
determining your own ability to
successfully trade gaps is to
paper trade. Paper trading does
not involve any real
transaction. Instead, one writes
down or logs an entry signal and
then does the same for an exit
signal. Then subtract
commissions and slippage to
determine your potential profit
or loss.
Gap trading is much simpler than
the length of this tutorial may
suggest. You will not find
either the tops or bottoms of a
stock's price range, but you
will be able to profit in a
structured manner and minimize
losses by using stops. It is,
after all, more important to be
consistently profitable than to
continually chase movers or
enter after the crowd.
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