The big question is now are we in the beginning
stages of a 4th Secular Bear Market which started
in 2000. The average length of the previous 3
Secular Bear Markets was 18 years with a minimum of
16 years and a maximum of 21 years. Thus if you add
18 years to the year 2000 and take + or - 3 years on
either side then the next Secular Bull Market may
not begin until sometime in the 2015 to 2021 time
period if we are now entering a 4th Secular Bear
Market. However I would like to point out that even
in a Secular Bear Market there can still be Bull
Markets lasting a year or two as the longer term
charts of the Dow show below.